Charlotte Urban Institute study finds uneven decline in Fayetteville gun violence

By Asha Ellison

Though gun violence in Fayetteville is still often discussed in headlines and is subject to public debate, a closer look at the data tells a more nuanced story. In 2024, the City of Fayetteville commissioned the UNC Charlotte Urban Institute to further assess gun violence across the city.

Using a mixed-methods approach, the Institute analyzed crime data, community focus groups in ShotSpotter neighborhoods, and cost estimates to better understand both the reality of violence and how it is perceived across the city.

The findings of the assessment report are detailed below.

Gun violence, while uneven, is declining

While violent and non-violent firearm incidents have declined in Fayetteville since 2022, the progress is uneven. Certain neighborhoods continue to experience higher concentrations of violence, underscoring the need for targeted, sustained intervention.

At the same time, the overall impact remains substantial – and costly. In 2024 alone, gun violence cost the city an estimated $466 million, driven largely by loss of life and long-term effects on victims, families and communities. These costs extend far beyond the individuals directly involved,and affect public systems such as public safety and emergency response, criminal legal, education, health care, social services and community support systems, as well as a toll on the workforce and employers.

The most expensive cost of gun violence is attached to loss of life and long-term impacts on quality of life across the city.

Youth are central to the issue and the solution

The analysis revealed that young adults ages 18 to 24, are the group are more likely to be both victims and perpetrators of gun violence. Risk factors that contribute to these outcomes include peer dynamics, exposure to trauma, limited economic opportunity and access to firearms. Even when not physically harmed, youth who hear gunshots, witness violence or lose someone can experience chronic stress, anxiety, depression or grief, and develop hypervigilance as well as normalize feelings of unsafety. At school, gun violence disrupts learning, increases absenteeism and creates trauma-related challenges for students, while also straining resources. It can shape behavior that leads to more conflict, risk-taking or carrying weapons for protection. At the same time, it limits access to opportunities and is linked to long-term impacts like lower educational attainment, reduced earnings and ongoing health challenges.

However, these same factors also point to where solutions to further reduce gun violence could be most effective. Early intervention, mentorship, access to career pathways and establishing safe community spaces and positive peer networks were identified as critical strategies to reduce risk before escalation.

When it comes to gun violence, there’s a gap between perception and reality

One of the report’s most important findings is the disconnect between how violence is experienced and perceived.

Neighborhoods that are monitored through technologies like ShotSpotter, an acoustic gunshot detection system that identifies gunfire and alerts police in real time, are often viewed as significantly more dangerous than other parts of the city. While these areas do show higher rates of gun-related incidents compared to the city average, the differences largely disappear when compared to neighborhoods with similar characteristics.

In other words, these communities are not outliers – despite how they are often portrayed.

Residents themselves described a dual reality. Many reported frequent exposure to gunfire and the normalization of feeling unsafe. At the same time, they emphasized that their neighborhoods are often stigmatized and misrepresented, with media narratives reinforcing a perception of danger that can exceed the data.

And perception absolutely matters

The gap between perception and reality has consequences.

Because stigma can shape where investment flows, influential decisions about housing, business development and public resources can occur, reinforcing the very conditions – like disinvestment and limited opportunity – that contribute to violence in the first place.

A more accurate, contextual understanding of gun violence is essential to breaking that cycle.

In addition to providing the City of Fayetteville with a gun-violence assessment, Institute researchers also outlined several key recommendations to guide a local response and a data-informed, community-centered path forward. It was recommended that local leaders: 

• Strength data systems to better understand the circumstances of gun incidents, including intent and relationships between those involved
  
• Expand community-based prevention efforts, particularly through partnerships with trusted local organizations
  
• Make early investments in youth by focusing on prevention before age 18 through education, employment pathways and mentorship
  
• Promote responsible gun ownership, including safe storage and public education
  
• Shift the public narrative by moving beyond isolated incidents to address the broader systemic conditions that shape violence
  

These strategies collectively emphasize that reducing gun violence requires more than enforcement alone – it demands sustained investment in people, places and the systems that connect them.

what happens next?

Fayetteville’s partnership with the Institute to learn more about gun violence displays a commitment to better public safety and quality of life outcomes for residents. 

The Institute’s report ultimately calls for more grounded conversations that recognize both the progress and persistent challenges of firearm incidents in the area. And also requires that leaders treat perception as part of the issue to be addressed.

Gun violence in Fayetteville is not defined solely by where it occurs, but by how communities are supported, understood and invested in over time. Aligning data, community insight and policy action offers a clearer path forward.

Note: AI was used to help structure this article